For years, SaaS companies measured themselves against the T2D3 model: triple, triple, double, double, double. By 2025, that playbook looks outdated. According to Bessemer’s latest State of AI report, a new benchmark has taken hold — Q2T3: quadruple, quadruple, triple, triple, triple. Q2T3 reflects the dynamics of the AI era. Products move from research to market faster. Adoption spreads virally through communities and networks. Monetization often starts earlier. The result: growth curves that once felt impossible — like going from ~$3M ARR to $100M in four years.

Two paths of AI growth

According to Bessemer’s report, startups are splitting into two distinct growth paths.

Flash-Scalers (Supernovas): The extreme outliers. Some rocket to $40M ARR in their first year and surpass $125M by year two, with revenue-per-employee topping $1.1M ARR (BVP). But the brilliance comes at a cost — margins can shrink to just 25%, making this kind of growth hard to sustain.

Steady Scalers (Shooting Stars): The fast but durable builders. They may start at $3M ARR in year one, then quadruple and triple their way past $100M ARR by year four or five. With healthier ~60% margins and stronger retention, they prove that speed and sustainability can go hand in hand.

What the data says

Recent analyses show how uneven outcomes can be:

• a16z found that many AI apps are hitting $10M ARR within two years, far faster than SaaS

• Crunchbase reported that AI startups raised ~$23–24B in Q2 2024, and then a record-breaking $42B in Q4 — nearly double the prior quarter and 3.5× Q4 2023.

• Carta data showed median Series A valuations for AI startups were ~30% higher than non-AI peers in 2024, with round sizes ~20% larger. By year-end, nearly one-third of all venture capital went into AI companies, underscoring the conviction investors have in AI’s growth potential.

What founders should focus on

Not every company needs to be a Flash-Scaler. The most enduring businesses of this era will be Steady Scalers — growing quickly, but on top of durable economics and loyal customers.

For founders, the lesson is clear: AI can bend the growth curve, but fundamentals still matter. Investors are watching margins, retention, and efficiency, not just top-line hyper grwoth ARR. In 2025, greatness isn’t just about how fast you grow. It’s about growing right.

Written by Wix Ventures