Scenario

Scenario ABN 573 857 516 78

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Scenario is a consulting practice focusing on Human Factors.Scenario thinking is applied to design, groupwork, attention (and its stablemate, distraction). We enable public collaboration in transport and amenity planning through our design processes.We use scenarios to highlight error-provocative futures, and to help formulate present options. We also work with drama & narrative through our scenario theatre co-op.

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About

Scenario has been around for over a decade, and so far we've delivered projects and conference papers in 12 countries.A recent paper was at a Human Factors conference in Paris (on cognitive workload appraisal).
Our key service is collaborative groupwork targetted at design solutions.We analyse and re-configure work situations. We favour hybrid approaches, with scenarios being at the heart of our propaganda.
Typical projects include industrial risk & design, error analysis, humanitarian scenario planning & training in groupwork methods.We also create new approaches to live performance (click for our scenario theatre co-op).
We work mainly in Australia & the UK, and with corporate partners in Melbourne, Ireland & Canada.We collaborate with researchers, mostly in groupwork and human factors (especially those examining scenarios).

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Our most recent presentations were at the annual Society for Risk Analysis conference, and at a Safety in Design conference.

About

Skills & Methods

Enterprise risk systems

Investigation skills

Risk engineering techniques

Ergonomics & Human Factors

The psychology of uncertainty

Security risk management

Facilitation & group-work

Innovation & creativity

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Methods

Skills

Enterprise risk, including organisation stakeholder definition, scenario development and threat and vulnerability analysis.Investigation skills (formalised with our PRISM toolkit). These capabilities always include human error analysis.Risk engineering techniques (Fault Trees, Failure Modes, Reliability Techniques and Probabilistic Risk Assessment using Monte Carlo methods).Ergonomics, operability studies and workspace design, including systems and usability technologies. Modern ergonomics involves workspace and 'headspace' design as the focus moves from physical to cognitive tasks.The psychology of uncertainty, focusing on judgement and decision-making under conditions of uncertainty. Much of contemporary risk analysis is now informed by our understanding of systemic cognitive biases and predictable irrationality.Security risk, focusing on infrastructure and assets. Security projects can have unintended trade-offs, (such as lower trust) which require careful risk treatment.Facilitation skills, which clients rely on to 'gear' our collaboration and project outcomes. These efforts extend into culture change led by management teams.Innovation through groupwork. Perhaps the best record of our innovation in risk approaches is through our professional publications, available on request.
Scenario methods are a mixture of accepted, public-domain approaches & hybrid methods and bespoke techniques,depending upon the assignment. Our method-development efforts are frequently reported in our papers and delivered at international conferences & seminars. Of particular note is our contribution to the integration of Human Factors within project & engineering risk - particularly the consideration of human error & reliability within industrial task analysis.Enterprise Risk Strategies. Our approach for 'big picture' risk treatment establishes a clear framework of business goals, then generates opportunities, vulnerabilities and threats. These enterprise risk approaches have included the development of a risk maturity model for capability development, and an approach to elicit sentinel risks.The PRISM Investigation Toolkit. This toolkit provides for best practice in accident and incident investigation. Scenario's PRISM toolkit uses any serious mishap (including non-safety losses such as political or community misjudgements) as a window through which to critically view the management system.Human Factors tools. Scenario has applied various human factors tools to risk projects, including HEART (Human Error Assessment Review Technique) and CTA (Cognitive Task Analysis). These tools allow risk teams to treat the intangibles of high reliability systems that have a 'significant human component'.Risk Engineering Tools. Available risk tools include Failure Modes & Effects Analysis (FMEA), Fault Trees, Hazard and Operability Analysis (HAZOP), Human Error & Reliability Analysis (HRA techniques) and Workplace Risk Assessment & Control (WRAC). They are available as packaged systems with training modules and document templates.Monte Carlo Simulation Tools. Scenario has worked with the UK Ministry of Defence and the European Aviation Defence Syndicate using Predict & PertMaster Pro software tools. This expertise in project uncertainty modeling is being applied to critical civil infrastructure development projects.RiskSafe. Several countries have formalised team-based risk assessment. RiskSafe was created to emulate international standards for conducting such assessments. It is a powerful and flexible tool which has been used in hundreds of qualitative risk review exercises, ranging from mining hazards to IT infrastructure threats.Marine Security Toolkit. This training kit was developed to comply with the International Maritime Organisation's requirements for International Ship and Port Security. The training kit includes class and self-study modules, with a fully approved competency assessment.Reliability Toolkit. This kit is a packaged set of reliability tools and techniques suitable for lean process optimisation, including modern manufacturing principles such as kan-ban and poco-yoke. Such reliability systems are also being introduced to service environments.Governance thinking systems. Our approach to governance focuses on decisions that influence risks to the flow of equity within and between organisations. We have alliances with software companies that provide compliance platforms, and our risk governance expertise is then used to tailor these platforms to specific industry needs.TCM. Total Cost Management is a system of technique-based analysis which has been formalised and applied to many production environments, particularly product design, process facilities and manufacturing.TRIPOD. A diagnostic tool for determining the degree to which basic risk factors influence organisational performance; TRIPOD has been extensively validated and verified in numerous industrial settings since inception following a major Shell research and development project.

Results

Projects, Papers & Training

Scenario assignments have extended to industry, government, NGOs and start-up firms in technology, design & innovation.

We also work in government oversight agencies that regulate many of these organisations.

This mixture of roles has provided opportunities to develop holistic & systemic approaches to risk, like those we have presented at international conferences.

Projects

360 Networks. A US company focused on internet traffic management and the provision of co-located services for web hosting, Scenario prepared a risk compliance plan for local regulatory approval.Amcor Packaging. The Department of Industry, Science and Resources funded an energy management programme for high usage industries.AMP. AMP's risk management unit developed a management integrity system to drive resilience and reliability amongst its businesses. Scenario reviewed this system, and developed a plan for implementation and change management.Barrett Burston Maltings. Scenario led a senior management team through an energy management awareness process prior to their decision for a full energy management commitment.BRL Hardy Wineries. Scenario led senior management teams at the BRL Hardy Berri and Stonehaven sites in South Australia through a workshop focusing on process efficiency and energy management.Carlton and United Brewers. The Department of Industry, Science and Resources funded an energy management programme for high usage industries. Scenario facilitated workshops in energy awareness and education.Carrigaline Court Hotel. This luxury hotel in Europe was audited against a national risk framework, and a compliance plan developed and implemented.City of Boroondara. Scenario developed a plan for service improvements based on a customer value benchmarking study.Coca Cola Amatil. Scenario facilitated an executive workshop on energy management awareness and planning.Definition Media. A respected media specialist expanding his business into facilitation asked Scenario for facilitation guidance and assurance.Department of Education. The Victorian Government Technical and Further Education (TAFE) department required an e-portal strategy, so Scenario designed and conducted a value analysis session to define product outcomes and a project plan.Envirocare. This environmental firm operates as a key contractor to Melbourne University. A 'whole-of-business' risk assessment was conducted, the results of which contributed to a management system for the business.Fairfield City Council. Scenario developed a detailed analytic plan for service improvements based on a customer value benchmarking study.Ford Motor Company. Ford is revolutionising the way it sources materials, and the manner in which it partners with suppliers. Scenario worked closely with Ford to develop reliability assurance methods and protocols, and then delivered extensive training sessions to their designers, engineers, procurement managers and suppliers.GIO General Insurance. Prior to and during acquisition of GIO by SunCorp, Scenario worked with their risk management team to design and develop an on-line risk toolkit. Liberty Mutual. Liberty's risk consultants in Canada and Australia requested tailored training sessions in specific risk management techniques for new markets. Scenario prepared detailed training sessions, and delivered them to senior consultants and managers in both countries.Marand Engineering. Marand designs and installs computerised robot systems for Ford, and after experiencing Scenario's work at first hand within Ford, asked us to develop detailed capital forecasts for a new assembly facility. This plan was then presented to the Ford Australia board by Scenario, gaining early approval and allowing Marand to accelerate its design processes.Menzies. This diversified industrial group required environmental documentation services to refine their quality systems. Scenario project managed the requirements gathering, technical writing and records management against a tight audit deadline.Mount Alexander Shire. This shire council sought input to a five year infrastructure development plan. Scenario contributed to a risk-based approach for prioritising infrastructure needs and corresponding funding needs.National Rail Corporation. NRC's preparations for corporatisation included governance systems for incident and accident investigation. Scenario delivered System Safety Accident Investigation courses in accordance with industry best practices for investigation.Nelson Publishers. Scenario facilitated task analyses and usability definition sessions to clarify project plans.NIFAST. Scenario assisted with product and training transfers and consulting services, and provided advice regarding new markets and development opportunities.NSW Treasury Managed Funds. This fund formed an executive council headed by key risk management leaders from the University of Queensland, the University of NSW and the University of Sydney. Scenario developed and lead risk strategy sessions with the council.Professional Impressions. This training and management consulting group required analytic services to develop a methodology for value analysis and reporting.P&O. This training programme for security officers was developed for a remote learning environment in far north Queensland, and complied with IMO and local government requirements.Rightship. This marine risk rating company, a joint venture between BHP and Rio Tinto, provides vessel risk ratings for cargo handlers. Scenario overhauled their management system, simplifying compliance burdens, whilst meeting ISO 9001:2000 requirements.State Rail Authority of NSW. Prior to the Sydney 2000 Olympics, the city's rail system experienced a spate of incidents threatening reliable services. Scenario designed an incident management regime and rapidly implemented its use, leading to improved reaction, rectification and service confidence.Southcorp Winery. Scenario scoped an energy management session for a senior management team at the Southcorp Karadoc (Mildura Victoria) site embarking on a government sponsored training programme.Tasrail. This state rail authority required a "ground-up" approach to serious mishap investigation, which included development of training materials and tailored case studies. Toll Group. The International Maritime Organisation, a member of the UN, has mandated counter-terrorist security plans for all international ships and port facilities. A comprehensive series of terror risk assessments, security plans and training activities was implemented for two companies within this major Australian corporate.Tycom Submarine Systems. This division of Tycom International lays submarine fibre optic cables which connect all continents. Audit services.United Parcel Service. Scenario audited UPS premises in Europe and developed the requirements for an Emergency Response Plan suitable for local threats.VDO Mannesman. Scenario conducted cost-efficiency exercises for VDO Mannesman.

Papers

Methodological errors in risk analysis - insights from back-casting; Society for Risk Analysis 6th annual conference UQ (2011).Operator collaboation in control room design; ICOCO Paris, IEHF conference (2010). Risk assessment in Public Transport Regulatory issues, at the Seminar on Human Factors in Public Transport Safety, at DOT Melbourne (2008). Small Business and Human Factors, in the Proceedings of the Humanising Work & Work Environments conference (HWWE 2005); Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati, Assam, India.Balancing security and safety outcomes, in the Proceedings of the National Marine Safety Conference (Marine Safety 2005); Wrest Point, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.A 'system-of-systems' risk approach, in the Proceedings of the XVII Annual Conference of the International Society for Occupational Ergonomics and Safety (2003); Munich, Germany.Reframing risk using systems thinking, in the Proceedings of the Annual Ergonomics Society Conference (2003); Edinburgh, Scotland.Risk planning in large-scale natural disasters, in Safety at Work ISSN 1444-6995 (Issue 12 April 3rd 2001).Developing Disaster Recovery Programs, IIR Operational Risk Management conference (2000) Marriott Hotel, Toronto, Canada.Developing Disaster Recovery Programs, IIR Disaster Recovery Planning conference (1999); Millennium Hotel, Sydney, Australia.Human Error in Risk Assessment, Graduate School of Management Annual Risk Conference (1999); MacQuarie University, Sydney, Australia.IT Risk Management Systems, IT in Manufacturing Conference (1999); Crown Towers Centre Melbourne, Australia.Best Practice Risk Management Systems, Quest 99, International manufacturing conference (1999), Millennium Hotel Sydney, Australia.Structured Ergonomics Intervention in Business, Ergon-AXIA (1998), Hong Kong.Human Error Assessment in Process Industries, IChemE seminar (1998), Melbourne, Australia.Workplace Risk Assessment & Control, Safety In Action conference (1998); Melbourne, Australia.Business Process Re-engineering, Risk Assessment and Usability, panel member during Interact (1997); Sydney, Australia.Civil Aviation Safety Authority (board composition issues), interview on 3LO radio (Melbourne Australia) with Gail Jennings (1997).Inter-governmental agreement on Rail Safety - Safety Management Seminar presentations (joint annual meeting of safety authorities from air, sea and rail), Victoria, Australia (1997).Information Risk Management, in Electronic Document Management, IIR Conference, (1997); Sydney, Australia.Conducting a risk assessment on your records management system, in Document and records management systems, IIR Conferences (1996); Sydney, Australia.Risk Analysis as a Plant Safety design tool, in the proceedings of the 12th annual meeting of the Asia Pacific Occupational Safety and Health Organisation (FutureSafe 1996); Melbourne, Australia.Risk Analysis - legal and technical motives, presentation to the annual State Emergency Services seminar on risk management (1996); Melbourne, Australia.Computer Tools for Risk Analysis, presentation to the Health and Safety Organisation of Victoria, Dangerous Goods Division (1995), Melbourne, Australia.Risk Analysis and Safety Science, guest presentation to visiting United Nations delegation attending international workshop on risk analysis at University of Newcastle (1993) Australia.A guide for the application of ergonomics in coal mines; JCB publications (1993), ISBN 0 642 195056.Asset Management Assessment Methods, in Best Practice in Public Sector Asset Management: IIR Conferences (1993), Sydney, Australia.Breaking through to Human Factored Systems, in the Australian Society for Technical Communication Seminar (1992); Sydney Australia: AUSTEC (NSW).Computer Supported Cooperative Work Design reviews, in OZCHI 92, Proceedings of the CHISIG annual conference (1992); Bond University Australia. Downer, Ergonomics Society of Australia.Usability and task analysis case studies, presentation to the Australian Broadcasting Corporatisation design seminar (1992); Ultimo, Australia.Groupwork and Human-Computer Interaction, presentation to the University of Technology Sydney design seminar, Faculty of Design, Architecture and Building Science (1992); Sydney, Australia.Involving the public in early prototype design: the CityRail experience, in Enhancing Usability in Human-Computer Interaction (1992); Sydney, Australia: AIC Conferences.Introducing New Technology to the Production Process, in Proceedings of the 3rd International Large Open Pit Conference, Australian Institute of Mining (1992); Brisbane, Australia.Risk Analysis using work models, in Designing for Everyone Proceedings of the 11th Congress of the International Ergonomics Association in Paris (1991); eds Quiennec Y, et al., Taylor & Francis.Using Models in Group Design Processes, in People before Technology, OZCHI91, Proceedings of the CHISIG conference (1991); eds Hammond J, et al. Downer, Ergonomics Society of Australia.HAZOP and teamwork - case studies in new technology, paper presented to the NSW annual safety training seminar (1991), Blue Mountains Leura Resort, Australia.Modelling in facilitated groupwork, seminar at Key Centre of Design Quality Design Conference (1991), Sydney University, Australia.

Training

Human error & reliability techniques - a half day seminar delivered for IPQC.Basics of risk assessment, a one or two day course delivered to over 700 industry and government participants.Human Factors observations from consulting, presentation to La Trobe University ergonomics programme.Learning from accidents, Dublin University Management School.Collaboration on delivering emergency centre training course in Japan; a contingency planning workshop for Red Crescent officials in Malaysia.Delivery of a UNHCR course in Indonesia on public health risk management for Columbia University.AusAID. RedR (Registered Engineers for Disaster Relief) Australia is fully funded by AusAID, the Australian Agency for International Development. Scenario presented their five day relief worker programme, and collaborates on training development.Risk analysis tools & techniques, a three-day course delivered to over 700 industry and government participants.Risk management systems, a three-day course for managers delivered to over 300 senior executives.Systems Safety Accident Investigation, a three-day workshop delivered to over 1300 industry participants.Culture change workshops delivered to teams of management executives.Strategic planning workshops delivered to boards, particularly those integrating risk governance mechanisms into their board structure.

PDFs